For the week of June 1, 2026

"The problem with the future is that it keeps turning into the present."—Bill Watterson, American cartoonist 

Inventory continued to build, with the number of homes for sale remaining above year-ago levels. New listings also increased compared to last year, giving buyers more choices as the summer market begins.

Listing prices declined year over year for the 19th consecutive week, the longest streak on record. Sellers appear to be adjusting pricing expectations upfront rather than relying on later price reductions, creating more realistic opportunities for buyers.

Mortgage demand continues to show signs of resilience despite affordability challenges. Consumer credit conditions improved in spring, delinquency trends eased, and mortgage demand strengthened as buyers selectively reentered the market.

RECORD RUN CONTINUES...stocks reached fresh record highs last week as investors welcomed signs of easing energy-market pressures and continued confidence in the underlying strength of the U.S. economy.

Bond markets also improved as oil prices moved lower and optimism grew around a potential long-term reopening of key global shipping routes. Investors increasingly focused on economic fundamentals rather than geopolitical headlines.

Economic growth continues to show surprising resilience. Consumer spending remains solid, business investment is accelerating, and corporate profits continue supporting confidence across financial markets.

The week ended with the Dow up 0.7%, to 51,032, the S&P 500 up 0.2%, to 7,580, and the Nasdaq up 0.2%, to 26,973.

Bond yields moved modestly lower as investors responded to improving energy-market conditions and signs of stabilizing inflation expectations. Mortgage rates remain elevated but have generally stabilized in recent weeks.

DID YOU KNOW...Sellers are increasingly pricing homes more competitively from the start, with fewer price reductions occurring after listings hit the market. This trend suggests the recent softness in listing prices reflects changing seller expectations rather than weakening housing demand.

JOBS DATA, PMI, PRODUCTIVITY...Markets will focus on Friday's jobs report along with manufacturing and services activity data for clues about economic momentum. Labor market strength remains one of the most important factors shaping Federal Reserve policy expectations. Housing markets continue to benefit from improving inventory and more realistic seller pricing, but mortgage rates remain a key affordability hurdle. Strong economic data could support buyer confidence while also reinforcing expectations for steady Fed policy.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Investors see the Fed holding rates steady for now, with any policy changes likely dependent on future inflation data. Note: In the lower chart, the 0.7% probability of change means there's a 99.3% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%–3.75%.

Probability of change from current policy:

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