For the week of April 6, 2026

““Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”—Dwight D. Eisenhower, 34th President of the United States

Rising inventory and softening prices continue to create more favorable conditions for buyers this spring. While mortgage rates have increased recently, they remain below last year’s levels, helping support affordability compared to recent seasons.

A stronger labor market is also providing support for housing demand, with steady job growth and wage gains helping improve household formation and buyer confidence heading into peak season. 

Mortgage rates have moved higher in recent weeks, pushing monthly housing costs up and beginning to impact buyer activity. Early signs of demand sensitivity are emerging, reinforcing how critical rate stability will be for sustaining momentum this spring.

RELIEF RALLY REBOUNDS...Stocks moved higher last week as easing oil prices and signs of potential Middle East de-escalation helped improve sentiment and drive a broad market recovery.

Bond yields remained elevated but showed signs of stabilizing as investors balanced inflation concerns with steady economic data. Markets continued to react to geopolitical developments and shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy.

Despite ongoing uncertainty, economic fundamentals remain supportive. The labor market showed strength with solid job growth, consumer activity remains steady, and housing conditions continue to improve with rising inventory and moderating prices.

The week ended with the Dow up 3.0%, to 46,505, the S&P 500 up 3.4%, to 6,583, and the Nasdaq up 4.4%, to 21,879.

Bond markets held relatively steady as inflation concerns remained present but contained. Mortgage rates stayed elevated but rangebound, reflecting a balance between economic strength and ongoing global uncertainty.

DID YOU KNOW...Wage growth is continuing to outpace inflation, a trend that can help gradually improve affordability and support buyer demand over time.

CPI DATA, FED SIGNALS, RATE DIRECTION...Markets will focus on upcoming inflation data as the primary driver of rate expectations. CPI will be key in determining whether recent upward pressure on mortgage rates continues or begins to ease. The Federal Reserve remains in a data dependent stance, with strong labor conditions supporting the economy but reducing urgency for rate cuts. Stable inflation readings could help bring rate stability and support spring homebuying activity.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Markets currently expect policymakers to hold rates steady while monitoring inflation progress and global risks. Officials are also expected to maintain a data dependent approach as they evaluate the timing of potential future easing. Note: In the lower chart, the 0.5% probability of change means there's a 99.5% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%–3.75%.

Probability of change from current policy:

If you’re having trouble making a decision, weigh the downside risks. If option 1 doesn’t work out, what’s the worst that could happen? Ask yourself the same for option 2. Then make your decision based on which outcome you’d rather deal with if things don’t work out.