FOR THE WEEK OF September 21, 2026

  “You can’t wait for inspiration. You have to go after it with a club.” — Jack London, American novelist

Active inventory climbed 5.0% from last year and remains near its highest level since 2019. More homes to choose from, combined with softer asking prices, continue to give fall buyers additional negotiating power.

Homeowner equityreached more than $34.9 trillion in the second quarter. Despite affordability challenges for buyers, substantial homeowner equity continues to give many existing owners financial flexibility when considering their next move.

New construction is slowing as builders respond to softer demand and elevated inventory. Higher mortgage rates are making buyers more cautious, which could keep builders focused on incentives rather than aggressively adding new supply.

FED RAISES RATES...The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate by 0.25% to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase in three years. The move was widely expected, but the possibility of another hike this year kept pressure on borrowing costs.

Mortgage rates felt that pressure quickly. The average 30-year fixed rate jumped from 6.76% to 6.95%, the highest since January 2025, making monthly payments more expensive for buyers already navigating elevated home prices.

Housing still offered buyers some leverage. Inventory remained elevated, asking prices stayed below last year's level, and homes sold faster than a year ago, suggesting motivated buyers are still finding opportunities despite higher rates.

The week ended with the Dow down 1.6%, to 52,573; the S&P 500 down 0.8%, to 7,657; and the Nasdaq down 0.7%, to 26,333.

The 10-year Treasury yield reached 5% Friday, adding pressure to mortgage rates. Until longer-term yields ease, financing costs are likely to remain one of the biggest hurdles facing buyers this fall.

DID YOU KNOW...Pending home sales actually increased 0.3% in August despite elevated mortgage rates. Contract activity remains below last year, but the small gain shows that some buyers are still moving forward when the right opportunity appears.

HOUSING TAKES CENTER STAGE...This week’s housing data will give us a better look at how buyers are responding to mortgage rates near 7%. New-home sales will be especially important as builders continue using incentives to make payments more manageable. Stronger sales could show buyers are adjusting to higher borrowing costs, while weaker demand would reinforce the affordability challenges facing the market. For Realtors, the bigger question is whether today’s increased inventory and negotiating room are enough to keep buyers active heading into fall.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. TThe Fed raised rates to 3.75%–4.00% last week and signaled that another increase could come before year-end. Note: In the lower chart, the 53.1% probability of change means there’s a 46.9% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.75%-4.00%. Fed Watch Source

Probability of change from current policy:

Higher rates make follow-up more important, not less. Buyers who pause today may become tomorrow's clients when the right price, seller concession or financing option changes the math. Stay useful without pressuring them to move before they're ready.