For the week of March 23, 2026

“Do not wait to strike till the iron is hot, but make it hot by striking.”—William Butler Yeats, Irish poet, writer, and literary critic

Housing conditions continue to improve structurally, with inventory rising and listing prices declining year over year. These trends are helping shift leverage toward buyers as the spring home shopping season begins.

New listings dipped slightly compared to last year, signaling that some homeowners are still waiting for clearer rate direction before entering the market. Inventory levels remain improved overall, helping support more balanced spring buying conditions.

Builder confidence edged higher as increased buyer traffic offered cautious optimism for the new-home sector. Sales incentives and selective price adjustments continue as builders work to maintain momentum and address ongoing supply constraints.

VOLATILITY HOLDS MARKETS…Stocks declined for the week as geopolitical tensions and elevated oil prices continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Concerns about inflation risks and the potential for delayed Federal Reserve easing contributed to cautious trading conditions.

Bond yields edged higher as markets reacted to the prospect of sustained energy-driven inflation pressures. Investors remained sensitive to global developments and shifting expectations around the timing of future rate cuts.

Despite short-term headwinds, economic fundamentals continue to provide support. Employment conditions remain stable, productivity trends are favorable, and improving housing inventory levels are helping position the purchase market for gradual spring strengthening.

The week ended with the Dow down 2.1%, to 45,577, the S&P 500 down 1.9%, to 6,506, and the Nasdaq down 2.1%, to 21,648.

Bond markets experienced modest pressure as Treasury yields moved higher on inflation concerns linked to rising energy costs. Mortgage rates followed suit slightly upward but largely remained within recent ranges as markets balanced global risks with resilient domestic data.

DID YOU KNOW…Short-term mortgage rate volatility often creates brief windows of opportunity for buyers, reinforcing the value of proactive rate monitoring and timely lock strategies.

PMI DATA, SENTIMENT READINGS, HOUSING MOMENTUM...Markets will monitor upcoming Purchasing Managers’ Index reports and consumer sentiment data for signals on economic momentum. Productivity trends and housing activity indicators will also help shape expectations for rate direction. While the Federal Reserve recently signaled patience on rate cuts, continued moderation in inflation and steady labor conditions could help stabilize mortgage rates and support improving buyer engagement as spring demand builds.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Markets currently expect policymakers to hold rates steady while monitoring inflation progress and global risks. Officials are also expected to maintain a data dependent stance as they evaluate the timing of potential future easing. Note: In the lower chart, the 8.3% probability of change means there's only a 91.7% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%–3.75%.

Probability of change from current policy:

Confidence grows through clarity. In uncertain markets, borrowers look for guidance more than predictions. Focus on education, options, and responsiveness. Consistent communication can turn market hesitation into informed action and help build stronger pipelines this spring.