For the week of NOVEMBER 17, 2025

“If you want to kill any idea in the world, get a committee working on it.”—Charles Kettering, American inventor, engineer, and businessman 

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) noted homebuying got off to its strongest November start in three years, as applications for purchase mortgages shot up 6% last week, coming in 31% higher than the same week a year ago.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports more listings, and “with prices holding steady and homes spending slightly longer on the market, buyers will find more breathing room and more favorable conditions like price cuts.”

The MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index rose in October to its highest level in three years. This expansion in mortgage availability was driven by growth in the conventional mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

TWO UP, ONE DOWN... In the absence of economic data, traders juggled profit-taking, disappointing Fed-speak, and the end to the government shutdown, to finish the week with two major indexes up and one down.

Wall Streeters grappled with diminished expectations for a December Fed rate cut as they listened to FOMC members jabber on about needing to "continue putting pressure to bring inflation down."

In a nod to putting downward pressure on prices, President Trump signed an order on Friday to make substantial cuts to tariffs on hundreds of food products, including beef, coffee, bananas, and tomatoes. 

The week ended with the Dow UP 0.3%, to 47,147; the S&P 500 UP 0.1%, to 6,734; and the Nasdaq down 0.5%, to 22,901.

Overall, bonds made a small move lower, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% sliding 8 basis points, to 99.08. Freddie Mac’s Mortgage Market Survey reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate “essentially remained flat,” near lows for the year. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. 

DID YOU KNOW… The NAR’s 2025 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers found the top reason for selling is be closer to family or friends, followed by family and home size changes, indicating a market driven more by life stage than by profit-taking.

HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, JOBS... The U.S. Census Bureau is open again and will report on October Housing Starts, expected to come in at around 1.340 million, with Building Permits a little higher. October Existing Home Sales are predicted to continue growing slowly. The Bureau of Labor Statistics said the September jobs report will be released this Thursday, but there are no forecasts for Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate, or any other metrics we watch.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Last week's comments from Fed members were enough to push off expectations for a rate cut until January. Note: In the lower chart, the 44.4% probability of change means there's a 55.6% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.75%-4.00%.

Probability of change from current policy:

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