For the week of DECEMBER 22, 2025

“Let’s have some new cliches.”—Samuel Goldwyn, Polish-born American film producer and pioneer in the American film industry

Existing Home Sales gained in November, hitting a nine-month high. The median price is just 1.2% higher than year ago, as affordability iimproves—wage growth has consistently outpaced home price gains over the past year.

The National Association of Home Builders confidence index inched higher in December, and the report notes, “future sales expectations have been above the key breakeven level of 50 for the past three months.”

A new survey found that among buyers and sellers planning to enter the market soon, about 86% think 2026 will be a good year to make their move—and 75% of the agents surveyed agree.

TOPSY-TURVEY... It was a classic up-and-down week for stocks until cooling inflation and waning AI worries buoyed traders' optimism enough to book weekly wins for the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, though the Dow edged lower.

The delayed October and November jobs reports portrayed a weakening jobs market, although the small gain in the unemployment rate was due to a welcome 323,000 increase in the labor force.

Plus, the delayed November Consumer Price Index showed inflation cooling to 2.7%, with core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, down to 2.6%, the lowest since 2021. All this bodes well for more cuts from the Fed.

The week ended with the Dow down 0.7%, to 48.135; the S&P 500 UP 0.1%, to 6,835, and the Nasdaq UP 0.5%, to 23,308.

For the week, bonds ended flat overall, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% UP just 5 basis points, to 99.19. Freddie Mac reported the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped slightly in their weekly survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. 

DID YOU KNOW… After the FHFA raised conforming loan limits, HUD raised FHA loan limits to $541,287 in low-cost areas, $1.249 million in high-cost areas, and $1.873 million in Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the Virgin Islands.

NEW HOME SALES, GDP, JOBLESS CLAIMS... In the absence of prior monthly data, there are no forecasts for November New Home Sales. Analysts expect the GDP-Advanced read for Q3 will show the economy growing in a healthy 3% neighborhood. Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims should stay low.

Wednesday, Christmas Eve, the stock market will close at 1 p.m., the bond markets at 2 p.m. All financial markets will be closed Thursday, Christmas Day.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Lower inflation and a weaker but not recessionary labor market have Wall Street expecting another rate cut from the Fed in March, but a hold in April. Note: In the lower chart, the 21.0% probability of change means there's a 79.0% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

Probability of change from current policy:

It’s tempting to think that data helps you build trust and authority. But facts don’t create authority—connection does. Instead of leading with data, look to empathize with prospects—ask them insightful questions and actively listen. This isn’t your chance to impress—it’s your opportunity to make a lasting connect!on!