FOR THE WEEK OF August 10, 2026

  “The best way to appreciate your job is to imagine yourself without one.”—Oscar Wilde, Irish poet and playwright

Active inventory climbed 3.2% from a year ago and stayed above 1.1 million homes for a seventh straight week. New listings matched last year’s pace, continuing a nine-week stretch of steady seller activity.

Mortgage originations increased in the second quarter, helped by refinancing activity, while TransUnion reported consumer credit remains widely available and usage continues growing at a pace consistent with inflation.

Home insurance premium growth is beginning to ease, while policy availability and competition improved during the first half of the year. Insurance costs remain high, but increased competition could offer homeowners some relief.

RECORDS PUSH HIGHER...Stocks rallied last week as strong technology earnings, falling oil prices, and reduced fears of another Federal Reserve rate increase helped push the S&P 500 to fresh highs.

July’s jobs report added a note of caution, with payrolls falling by 23,000 and previous months revised lower. Middle East tensions also remain a potential source of renewed energy-price volatility.

Corporate earnings provided a strong counterweight. Second-quarter S&P 500 profit growth is tracking near 48%, with gains spreading beyond the largest technology companies into more sectors.

The week ended with the Dow up 3.0%, to 54,037, the S&P 500 up 3.6%, to 7,758, and the Nasdaq up 5.2%, to 26,691.

Mortgage rates rose to their highest level of 2026 as Treasury yields pushed borrowing costs higher earlier in the week. Softer jobs and wage data later reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening, potentially easing some rate pressure ahead.

DID YOU KNOW...More than 100,000 homes received price reductions for the fourth consecutive week, giving late-summer shoppers another sign that sellers are adjusting to current market conditions.

INFLATION, JOBS, HOUSING...Markets will focus on this week’s inflation report, weekly unemployment claims, and new housing updates for clues about where the economy is headed. Cooler price growth following July’s weaker jobs report could reduce pressure on interest rates and mortgage costs. With inventory still building, steadier borrowing costs could help support buyer activity as the market moves toward fall.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. July’s weaker employment report has reduced expectations for another rate increase as policymakers turn their attention back to inflation. Note: In the lower chart, the 45.9% probability of change means there’s an 54.1% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

Probability of change from current policy:

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