For the week of DECEMBER 15, 2025

“You wouldn’t have won if we’d beaten you.”—Yogi Berra, American professional baseball catcher, manager, and coach

Last week, purchase loan applications hit their second-highest level in 2025, up almost 20% year-over-year, “as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve,” according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

ICE Mortgage Technology found all 100 major U.S. markets saw year-over-year affordability improvements. Some markets are the most affordable in nearly three years, with mortgage payments less than 30% of median household income.

Nationally, homes are becoming more affordable. The median list price of all homes in the U.S. is $427,900, while the median price of new listings is $390,970—and 41% of listings have seen a decrease in price.

FED YES, TECH NO... Friday's big sell-off in tech stocks was enough to spoil the party started Wednesday on the heels of the Fed's rate cut. The S&P 500 and the tech-y Nasdaq headed south, only the Dow hung onto a gain.

When two big tech names delivered earnings that left Wall Street wanting more, traders fears were re-kindled that the frenzy over AI was blowing valuations into a bubble that could readily burst.

That quashed the euphoria over the Fed's revisions to the economic outlook—lower inflation, higher GDP growth, and no change in the unemployment rate, and the fact we'll get a new Fed chair, likely to cut rates more, in May.

The week ended with the Dow UP 1.0%, to 48.458; the S&P 500 down 0.6%, to 6,8727, and the Nasdaq down 1.6%, to 23,195.

Bonds overall ended off a tad, the 30-Year UMBS 5.0% slipping 6 basis points, to 99.14. The national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained near 2025 lows, “well below the year-to-date average,” in Freddie Mac’s weekly survey.  Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information. 

DID YOU KNOW… Realtor.com reports, “the latest housing market data shows that conditions continued to improve for homebuyers in November, with climbing inventory, softening prices, and extended time on the market.”

HOME BUILDING, EXISTING HOME SALES, RETAIL SALES, INFLATION, JOBS... September Housing Starts and Building Permits are expected to gain, as builder sentiment improves. November Existing Home Sales are predicted to stay at the prior month's level. Economists forecast Retail Sales will head up in October, while Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation remains down—at a third of the level it was just a few years ago. The November jobs report should post an increase in Nonfarm Payrolls and Hourly Earnings, with a hold on the Unemployment Rate.

Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months. Wall Streeters expect the rate to hold at the next Fed meet, but a slight majority predict another cut in March, with a hold in April. Note: In the lower chart, the 24.4% probability of change means there's a 75.6% probability the rate will stay the same. Current rate is 3.50%-3.75%.

Probability of change from current policy:

Now is the time to set next year’s goals. Make them specific, measurable, attainable—and, above all, visible. Post them where you’ll see them every day. Goals are only as strong as your commitment to keep them top of mind and make daily adjustments to reach them.